Análise dos factores determinantes do preço do algodão caroço em Moçambique (1995 – 2010)

Abstract

This dissertation focuses on the factors that affect the price of seed cotton in Mozambique, based on the analysis of annual historical data for the period between 1995 and 2010. The study analyzed the determining factors that affect the price of seed cotton in Mozambique, taking into account described and estimated their effect, based on the analysis of the conditions and causes that affect the variability of the price of seed cotton and its interconnections. For the description of the factors that affect the price of cotton, descriptive statistics were used by means of calculation and analysis measures of central tendency and dispersion, in addition to graphical analysis and stationarity using the Dickey Fuller Augmented (ADF) test. On the other hand, to estimate the effect of factors that affect price variability, multiple regression models were estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methods. The results demonstrate that the rate variables transactions and the exchange rate are the factors that affect the price of cotton in the country, with coefficients of -0.063 and -0.004, respectively. However, the study concluded that the CIF and FOB prices, the ginning rate, the quantities of seed cotton and fiber and the quality differential were not statistically significant implying that they did not have a significant effect on the variation in the price of seed cotton in Mozambique(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)